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OCTOBER 26,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

CLINTON LEAD NARROWS – FROM FOX:   With less than two weeks to go, the race for the White House has narrowed as Hillary Clinton now has a three-point advantage over Donald Trump.  That’s within the margin of error of the national Fox News Poll of likely voters.  Clinton is ahead of Trump by 44-41 percent. Another one-in-ten back a third-party candidate and four percent are undecided. Last week she was up by six points (45-39 percent) and before that by seven (45-38 percent).  But an AP poll shows Hillary up 14 points.  Go figure. 

HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS – FROM FOX:   UNITED NATIONS – A U.N. expert says junk food is a human rights concern.  Hilal Elver, the U.N.'s special representative on the right to food, said Tuesday the rise of industrial food production combined with trade liberalization has allowed large corporations to flood the global market with cheap, nutrient-poor foods that force poor people to choose between economic viability and nutrition, effectively violating their right to adequate food.  I'll never look at French fries the same way again.  And we thought nuclear weapons were a problem.

MAJOR ISSUES DEPARTMENT – FROM FOX:   The Clinton campaign’s recent attacks on Donald Trump for his comments about a beauty queen’s weight problems were months in the making, according to an opposition research report uncovered in emails released by WikiLeaks on Sunday.  Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton invoked those comments during the first presidential debate on Sept. 26. Near the end of the showdown, during a sustained riff about the Republican nominee's past remarks about women, Clinton cited the case of Miss Universe 1996 Alicia Machado.   Nothing like a clear sense of priorities.

October 26, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 12:33 P.M. ET:   While we fight an election campaign, others are fighting for real, or getting ready to.  Anyone in the mainstream media interested?  From London's Mirror: 

Britain is sending hundreds of soldiers and hardware to Russia's borders as part of a huge military deployment.

A total of 800 troops, drones and tanks are moving to Estonia as part of the biggest military build up of NATO troops on Russia's borders since the Cold War.

It comes after an increase in tensions between the West and Russia in recent months.

Earlier this month, 40 million Russians reportedly carried out nuclear evacuation tests after officials warned that the West wanted to launch strikes on the country.

NATO is now pressing allies including the US and Britain to contribute to the military presence as the alliance prepares for a long quarrel with Moscow.

Last week, a Russian aircraft carrier passed through the English Channel as it travelled to Syria in a show of force along Europe's shores.

Alliance defence ministers aim to make good on a July promise by NATO leaders to send forces to the Baltic states and eastern Poland from early next year.

COMMENT:  But how important could all this be when compared with opening rest rooms in America to people who identify with any available gender?  I mean, let's have priorities here.

October 26, 2016       Permalink

THREE NEW RESULTS, JUST IN – AT 10:20 A.M. ET:  New state polls, possibly good news for Donald Trump.  From Bloomberg: 

Donald Trump has a slim advantage in Florida as critical independent voters narrowly break his way in the must-win battleground state, a Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

The Republican presidential nominee has 45 percent to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 43 percent among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, the poll found. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump has 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent.

Among independents, Trump gets 43 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent in a head-to-head contest. When third-party candidates are included, Trump picks up 1 point with independents while Clinton drops to 37 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson taking 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein getting 5 percent.

“This race may come down to the independent vote,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Right now, they tilt for Trump. By a narrow margin, they opted for Obama over Romney in 2012.”

Trump’s showing in this poll is stronger than in other recent surveys in the state. Clinton had an advantage of 3.1 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics Florida average on Tuesday.

Poll also shows Senator Marco Rubio with a ten-point advantage in his re-election race.

In Ohio, the latest Axiom poll shows Trump up by four, 46-42%.

And in Pennsylvania, the latest poll shows Trump gaining, and now within three points of Hillary Clinton, 45% for Clinton, 42% for Trump.

We always caution readers that a poll is a snapshot in time, and the results above are from a single poll in each of the states covered.  But I do get a sense of a possible movement toward Trump.  Maybe.  Only maybe.

I ask this question:  Is it possible Trump is getting a sympathy vote?  You know, you bash a man so much that voters start to feel it's unfair.  I only raise the question.

October 26, 2016       Permalink

THE OUTLYING THREE – AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  We focus each day now on the three "outliers," the three major polls that are getting famous for disagreeing with the big fat guys, all of whom are predicting a decisive Clinton victory.

Yesterday (cue the Soap Opera organ music) the three showed tiny leads for Hillary Clinton – so small as to be insignificant.  Today, two show the same thing, but one has reverted to a small Trump lead:

From IBD/TIPP, with a great record of accuracy:

Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over Donald Trump in the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll, but she is ahead by less than a full percentage point — 41.8% to 41.2% — in a four-way matchup. Libertarian Gary Johnson captures 8% of the vote, with Jill Stein down to 2.9%.

Clinton is now up two points in a head-to-head race with Trump — 43.3% to 41.3%.

From Rasmussen: 

Hillary Clinton still maintains a slight advantage as support for the major third party candidates appears to be slipping away in Rasmussen Reports’ latest White House Watch survey.

The new national telephone and online survey shows Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump 44% to 43% among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earns a new low of four percent (4%) support, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to one percent (1%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

It is common for third-party support to slip as election day nears.  Many voters decide they want to vote for someone with a chance at winning.

The L.A. Times tracker, which showed a slight Clinton lead yesterday, now shows a razor-thin Trump margin, with Trump at 45.3% and Clinton at 44.2%. 

The election is less than two weeks away.  If the major polls are correct, Clinton needs only to get through these final campaign days.  If the three musketeers, the outliers, are correct, this race can go either way.

October 26,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 25,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:53 P.M. ET:

NO SHOCK HERE – FROM NEWSBUSTERS:   In the twelve weeks since the party conventions concluded in late July, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has received significantly more broadcast network news coverage than his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, but nearly all of that coverage (91%) has been hostile, according to a new study by the Media Research Center (MRC).  In addition, the networks spent far more airtime focusing on the personal controversies involving Trump (440 minutes) than about similar controversies involving Clinton (185 minutes). Donald Trump’s treatment of women was given 102 minutes of evening news airtime, more than that allocated to discussing Clinton’s e-mail scandal (53 minutes) and the Clinton Foundation pay-for-play scandals (40 minutes) combined.  Not surprised at all.  The press has returned to 19th-century patterns.  News organizations now advance political agendas, almost all of them on the left.

THIS IS JUSTICE? – FROM THE NEW YORK TIMES:    The Justice Department has replaced the New York team of agents and lawyers investigating the death of Eric Garner, officials said, a highly unusual shake-up that could jump-start the long-stalled case and put the government back on track to seek criminal charges.  Mr. Garner, 43, died in 2014 on a Staten Island street corner, where two police officers confronted him and accused him of selling untaxed cigarettes. One of the officers, Daniel Pantaleo, was seen on a video using a chokehold, prohibited by the New York Police Department, to subdue him. Mr. Garner’s last words, “I can’t breathe,” became a rallying cry for protesters around the country.  Federal authorities have been investigating whether officers violated Mr. Garner’s civil rights in his fatal encounter with the police. But the case had been slowed by a dispute because federal prosecutors and Federal Bureau of Investigation officials in New York opposed bringing charges, while prosecutors with the Civil Rights Division at the Justice Department in Washington argued there was clear evidence to do so.  Apparently, Obama's crew at the Department of Justice didn't get the result they wanted from an honest investigation, so they changed the investigators.  They must long for the old Soviet Union.

HIGH REGARD FOR POLICE – FROM CNS:   The percentage of Americans who say they have a “great deal” of respect for the police in their area has climbed to 76 percent—just one percentage point shy of the all-time high of 77 percent recorded 49 years ago, according to a Gallup poll released today.  Respect for the police has increased over the past year among Americans of differing racial groups, ideologies, political affiliations and age, according to data published in a Gallup analysis.  Since 1965, Gallup has asked this question nine times: “How much respect do you have for the police in your area—a great deal, some, or hardly none?”  The first time Gallup asked it--in a survey conducted April 2-7, 1965—70 percent said they had a great deal of respect for the police, 22 percent said they had some respect, and 4 percent said they had hardly any, and 4 percent said they had no opinion.  It's good to see this.  Yes, there are some bad cops, but most do a fine job, and risk their lives every time they stop a driver or knock on a front door.

October 25, 2016       Permalink

THE THREE OUTLIERS MOVE TOWARD HILLARY – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  The three polling holdouts – L.A. Times, TBD/TIFF, and Rasmussen, have, as of this morning, tilted ever so slightly toward Hillary, meaning that the major pollsters are now unanimous in seeing a Hillary victory.

But the margins are so close in those three polls as to be meaningless.  Rasmussen has Hillary up 43-42%, not even close to the magic 50% mark.  IBD/TIFF has Hillary up 42-41%, the first time she has ever led in this poll, which has been the most accurate in recent presidential elections.  L.A. Times has Hillary up 45-44.1%, a difference of less than one percentage point.

Other polls show Clinton well ahead.

Do today's results mean there's a trend toward Hillary?  No.  They simply mean she has made incremental progress.  But she is still below 50%. 

Early voting in several states is actually showing enthusiasm for Trump, but, again, that may simply reflect the zeal of some Trump voters who cast their ballots early.

I wouldn't read much into these numbers at this point.  The CNN/ORC poll shows Clinton up by five, 49-44%.  That's a solid lead, but still places her under 50%.   The American voters' enthusiasm for the "probable winner" is still very much under control.

Two weeks to go.  The key will be in the trending.  If you see all polls moving toward Hillary, it will mean that the Trump "miracle" just isn't happening.  If you see the race tightening, and the three outlier polls moving back to Trump, we could be in for a surprise.

As in all elections, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  That will depend on turnout.  Who will vote?   Who will stay home?  And will those who vote have told the truth to pollsters?

October 25,  2016     Permalink

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  Russia, down and out not many years ago, is rebuilding its armed forces into a modern, superb organization, with the latest technology.  From London's Mirror: 

Russia has revealed its biggest ever nuclear missile which is powerful enough to destroy a country as big as France with a single strike.

Vladimir Putin is seeking to replace his arsenal of SS-18 Satan weapons with the new RS-28 Sarmat super-nukes.

They are packed with up to 16 nuclear warheads according to pictures revealed online from the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.

The weapons – which will be ready for launch in 2018 – will make the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki look like “popguns”, experts have said.

A message posted alongside the picture said: “In accordance with the Decree of the Russian Government 'On the State Defense Order for 2010 and the planning period 2012-2013', the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau was instructed to start design and development work on the Sarmat.

COMMENT:  We have yet to hear a reaction from Field Marshal Obama or Grand Admiral Kerry.  Of course, Obama leaves office in less than three months, so maybe he's lost interest.  Or maybe he wasn't much interested in the first place.

Frightening technology, aimed at us.

October 25, 2016       Permalink

INCIDENT IN PHILLY – AT 8:06 A.M. ET:  There has been a disturbing flash-mob attack at Temple University in Philadelphia.  From NBC Local: 

Four juveniles were arrested in a series of flash mob-style attacks on Temple University's campus this weekend that left students and police officers hurt, police and university officials said.

Groups of young people, estimated to number between 20 to 100, roved the school's North Philadelphia campus Friday night for nearly two hours causing havoc, authorities said.

Students were punched and kicked, an officer tossed to the ground and stones were thrown at passing cars, police said. Officers from three agencies — the Philadelphia Police Department, Temple University police and SEPTA police —responded to the incidents.

As many as six Temple students were hurt in the attacks as they walked around campus between 8 p.m. and 9:30 p.m. that night, along with a university police officer and a Philadelphia police horse.

One student, who was not identified, told the college news site The Tab she was walking with her boyfriend near 16th and Oxford streets around 8 p.m. when they were attacked by two kids.
The student told the news site her boyfriend was able to run away but she was grabbed by the hair and beaten on her head and back.

“I somehow got to the other side of Oxford Street by the time they got me to the ground. I remember shoes coming for my face and after that I heard other kids from the group saying ‘Yo chill, yo chill, it’s just a girl’ and they pulled my attackers off me," she reportedly said.

COMMENT:  I look in vain for any national reporting of this incident.  I guess the students' lives don't matter. 

October 25,  2016     Permalink